Tuesday

TheInflationist Weekend Summary: 140409

Post a Comment April 14, 2009 – 3:34 am |   | Permalink |  Print This Post |

Our portfolio continues its rise - now up 83.5% since 1st January 2009. More of our unrealised profits are cashed out as cash in bank is sitting pretty at $41855. Markets continue its “gravity defying rise” - number of technical stock blogs calling for a top and turn (down) is up: these calls are based on countless technical indicators. The most quote indicator is the “Number of stocks above their 30(some use 40) day moving average” is now 90%. This means 90% of stocks are now above their 40 day moving average. Based on previous bear markets, this suggest a top is approaching and a pullback is due (refer to image below). Note the author highlighted points during a Bear market but there are so many other points where the indicator went to 80-90% levels between 2001-2007 in the Bull run.

That said, based on another indicator, the 30 day moving average just crossed over the 60 day moving average indicating a BUY. So which do you follow? As you can see, you can find indicators to suit your call if you look hard enough. A good technical trader will look at them collectively, combined with current movements, and trade accordingly. Our personal strategy is to marry fundamentals with technical analysis, and to take positions in extremes on the tenet that markets move up and down so as long as one is not overleveraged and are able to hold, you will be able to get out profitably.

Stocks Above 40 Day Moving Average

Stocks Above 40 Day Moving Average

For those who are new to our site, we started TheInflationist Trading Challenge in January 2009 with $40000. Unlike any other stock trading website, we trade publicly LIVE, track our performance transparently, and make actual trades in our personal portfolio (yes, we own every stock and trading position in our portfolio). We stick our necks out on the public chopping board and feel actual pain when our positions are in the red (No, this is not virtual trading for us!)

This phenomenal 83% result is reproducible for all readers as trades are published live at prices available to readers. Applying our own fundamental and technical analyses with our conservative risk management strategies, combined with the views of some of our favourite investment analysts (Jim Rogers, Mr Magik, Tony Caldaro, Brian Shannon, Guy Lerner, Marc Faber and Philip Manduca), we formulate trading plans both short and long term. We do not rely on any one source, and not uncommonly trade contrarion to these technical experts (with all due respect).

Feel free to join us - the first website on the web where you can take a position in anything, long or short! Trading is as easy as writing an email.

1. Register

2. Go to “My Portfolio” (top column of links)

3. Add stocks (search for stock codes using Yahoo here) - for Australian stocks, add (.AX ie dot AX) as an extension (eg: BHP.AX for BHP; WPL.AX for Woodside); enter the purchase price and quantity.

4. For trading indices or commodities, simply click on “Add New” under the “Posts” section in your Author Dashboard (www.theinflationist.com/wp-admin).

www.theinflationist.com

www.theinflationist.com

TheInflationist portfolio Weekend Summary 13/04/2009

TheInflationist portfolio Weekend Summary 13/04/2009