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Posts Tagged ‘ Technical Analysis ’

Feb 07

1937 vs Current Bear Market Update

Filed under Stocks

We posted last week that our target was 9880 for our last exit , which would be -30% from the peak. The Dow hit an intraday low of 9843 (breaking round number 9850), then fired back up to 10012. Our only “mistake” (hindsight is a wonderful thing) was setting a stop at 10200, giving the manipulators a chance to take us out the day before. Don’t you hate it when this happens!? That’s one of the reasons why we started this site, so that we would be forced to make a call by posting our trades live. Talk is alot easier, especially in trading. In all the newsletters we have read, these experts take credit for every call (simply by making lots of (opposite) calls). We were confident that 10,000 will be breached. We shorted more in our personal portfolio at 10250, and more of UK transport. Friday before the close we opened some long silver to hedge our unhedged shorts in the Dow. The thing is markets close at 10012, not 9880. Usually the market needs to close at the target (since all the numbers we use to calculate our prediction was derived from closing price). We will stay out for now.

What concerns us is what we read in the headlines #1 “It’s time to jump in” (???). We are also beginning to get phone calls from friends who have never been interested in stocks asking if we think its time to “go all in” equities? This is exactly what the men in black wants. Moms and dads are usually the last to jump in, and foots the bill for the party.

Our strategy going forward: We look to reshort at ~ 10400 +/- 50 points. Lets hope for a swift rally. Stops at previous high 10720.

Bullish Headlines
Bullish Headlines

1937 vs 2007 Crash Comparison Update 7.2.2010
1937 vs 2007 Crash Comparison Update 7.2.2010

1937 vs 2007 Crash update
1937 vs 2007 Crash update

All entries filed under this archive

Short on Rallies
1 response - Posted 01.28.10
We fired our first short way back in July 2009 at the textbook Head and Shoulder pattern - when the H&S pattern was so obvious that it was even quoted on mainstream media. We should have known better that when it is clear to everyone, then that's the least likely ...continue
1937 vs 2009 Bear Market Comparison Update: 22 Jan 2010
2 responses - Posted 01.23.10
For new readers, here are our previous posts comparing 1937 to 2007: 1. Using Fibonacci Numbers to Predict the Market 2. Comparison 1937 vs 2007 Quick Update 1937 vs 2007 Bear Market Charts: (Blue: 1937 ; Pink: Current Bear Market; Y axis: percentage from top; X axis: number of days from start of bear market) So ...continue
Germany DAX at Support Line?
no responses - Posted 01.20.10
The Optimist The Pessimist continue
Double Top Misnomer
no responses - Posted 11.09.09
The Dow Futures is currently at 10125 - high of the night. We have seen multiple double peaks in the Dow in the past at the tops - though on many occasions "double peak" is a misnomer since the second peak is slightly (about 0.5-1%) higher than the first. This ...continue
TheInflationist Makes Money Sleeping
no responses - Posted 01.27.09
Summary: $1300 Profit (closed half long position - $5/pt DJIA) The Inflationist took $1300 profit yesterday closing $5/point of Dow Industrials at 8200 (entry 7940; exit 8200 = SR Magik Number), and left the other $5/point open. The market crashed as soon as it touched 8200(exactly where the resistance is according ...continue
Markets Failed To Confirm Breakout
no responses - Posted 01.10.09
Every technical blog we follow have cautioned readers of a failed breakout on Friday after the dow broke below support and to sit on the sidelines until we have confirmation of a bullish setup. Bad employment numbers and general market conditions have once again hit headlines as the market behaves ...continue

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