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Posts Tagged ‘ India 50 (NIFTY) ’

Feb 04

India NIFTY Trade Update

Filed under Stocks

We have $75/point short NIFTY entry point 5375 left. Our long hedges in Nikkei and DJ were closed for $29k profits. We closed $65/point today at our entry at 5375 to lighten up our naked short position. So our long Nikkei/DJ + short NIFTY NET profit is now 29k, with $10/point short @ 5375. The NIFTY has fallen from ~6400 - the entire years rise wiped out in a month. We feel that there is still alot of downside in the long term, BUT nothing falls in a straight line. It has fallen more than China H shares in the short term. Markets like Jakarta and Brazil that rallied above 2007 highs (like India) have often pulled back 10-15%, then rallies back up to the previous high before breaking down again. We cannot be certain if India will make a double peak, but lightening up is a good idea after such a relentless fall. With 29k in the bank, and a $10/point short NIFTY exposure, thats 2900 points to wipe out our realised gains (VERY unlikely). We look to reanchor our shorts as the NIFTY scales its previous peak. We also lightened up our personal portfolio on Amazon - we have held all our shorts and fired more as it went to $190. Last week, whilst we were away in Cambodia, it fell to $166 - again a few months worth of gains wiped out in a day! For the purpose of our public portfolio we are still holding all our Amazon shorts.

Germany’s Dax is our main play as it makes new highs. DJIA is also making new highs but its gains are not as crazy as Germany. 7300 is the next resistance - we are hoping for an intraday spike to fire more shorts. We may swap our naked short NIFTY’s for short Dax.

We posted a roadmap for Dax on December 2 - looks like the expected pull back was less than expected. Our main concern is the relatively gradual rise - be prepared for an accelerated phase at the top as shorts get squeezed.

Germany Dax Roadmap
Germany Dax Roadmap

Germany Dax Chart - Roadmap 2011
Germany Dax Chart - Roadmap 2011

The ASX remains very weak - we have not even broken April 2010 high of 5000. Will floods really have a net negative impact on the markets? Sure, insurers, some miners and farms will be hit - but think of the subsequent rebuilding, plasma TVs, fridges, etc that need to be replaced?

All entries filed under this archive

Order to reshort NIFTY
no responses - Posted 01.11.11
We closed 1/4 of our NIFTY shorts yesterday at 5735. We have an order to reshort at 5835 (including spread)- ie slightly above round number 5800 which should be taken out. That will save us 100 points including 10 points of spread - $2500 in savings. Technically, it could easily retrace ...continue
India Crashes
no responses - Posted 01.10.11
Our portfolio is looking better with India's 2 day crash. Down 2.8% Friday and another 2.4% today. For those who follow our trades, we shorted NIFTY way back, hedged with a long Nikkei. Our Nikkei longs were stopped out to protect our profits at levels significantly lower - lesson is ...continue
no responses - Posted 11.20.10
Indicator 1 (BLUE) : 10 year extreme (Stock market in RED) Indicator 2: Extreme Our indicators are NOT for short term trading, but measures degree of how overbought markets are. Indicator 1 has gone to unprecedented levels in the last 10 years! Higher than 2007 high. We live in unprecedented times. Meanwhile, ...continue
China Crash vs Great Depression | India NIFTY vs China vs 1929 Great Depression
no responses - Posted 09.09.10
Some (I think it was Jim Rogers in one of his interviews) have compared the crash in China in 2007 as a great opportunity and buying into China at the height of panic akin to buying into America post 1929 crash. We compare China H Shares vs Dow Jones in ...continue
India SENSEX 10% Upside to go!
no responses - Posted 09.08.10
India at 31 Month High - no major resistance from here to 2007 highs. Double Peak here we come! An article from Daryl Guppy of said that "the Sensex might touch 19,500 level and pull backs to 17,500 level should be used as a buying opportunity". Capital goods index saw a gain ...continue
Protected: Trade Update August 2010
1 response - Posted 08.24.10
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