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Posts Tagged ‘ Germany Dax ’

Oct 27

Agriculture Play

Filed under Stocks

We have been accumulating a stock recently as part of our agriculture play. It is a solid business with a monopoly with good cash flow and leverages on the agriculture sector in Australia. Because it is so illiquid and we are still in the process of accumulation, we will not announce it publicly. We have checked out their services first hand, business looks good, efficiently run, and we believe it will be a long term play that will reflect the growth of agriculture in Australia. It has been overlooked, and is trading close to all time low whilst business continues to be profitable since inception. More on that in the future.

Meanwhile, the whole Greek crisis EU meeting yesterday triggered a massive rally. We expected a knee jerk rally, not quite to this extent, and shorted the NASDAQ last night. In our Germany Roadmap, when the Dax was threading water at 5000, we went all in long at $40/point and gradually locked in profits as it went up to 6000. We expected it to tag 6250. Here is what we wrote on 9 October:

Trade Plan for the next 2 months:

  1. Long on pull back - if Dax pulls back to 5480-5500 we look to re-establish some long positions
  2. Take profits as Dax approaches 6000 - be all out by 6000
  3. Do nothing from 6000 to 6190
  4. Short from 6210 to 6300
  5. Ride it down and take profits from 5000 to 4600.
  6. Long From 4550-4480. (we think it will break the 4500 mark)

We shorted US Tech instead of German Dax as the former is trading relatively way above the Dax. When the Dax was last 6400 in August, the US Tech was 2200-2250. It is not 2400, ie the level pre August decline (Dax equivalent = 7300). We did close a third of our Amazon shorts at 197 to lock in some profits for fear of a rally arising from the EU meeting. If history is any guide (problem is it never is!) to sharp declines, Amazon should resume its downward push. The NASDAQ chart does look abit “funny” to be able to fight its way back to August highs - concern here is a continuation of the upward trend to make higher highs. I am quietly glad Jim Rogers is also shorting US Tech stocks, but no one can be 100% right.

We remain bearish and will play it via US Tech shorts and Amazon shorts. Some of our long hedges in the form of Caterpillar and Google is paying dividends.

All entries filed under this archive

Dax Taking Profits
no responses - Posted 10.12.11
Close $10/point long Dax from 5050 at 6020 - 970 x $10 = $9700 continue
October 9 2011: Germany Dax Update
no responses - Posted 10.09.11
In our last post Germany Dax Update on 6 September  we were liquidating our short Dax as it approached 5000 and turned long from 5000: So where to from here? Our targets remain at the 5000 mark. If history is any guide to our untimely trades, we will be early again. So ...continue
German Dax Update
no responses - Posted 09.25.11
RSI usually rallies above the trendline for one final rally before the drop lower. So maybe all the forecast of S&P 1033 will only be hit after the RSI rallies above the trendline. As always, the market takes longer than what we expect to play out. May be weeks of ...continue
Liquidating Some Positions
1 response - Posted 09.06.11
We were just reviewing our portfolio. We have been shorting Germany Dax for what feels like an eternity. We have closed most of our positions in our personal portfolio, but have held most positions in our public portfolio here. Looking back at our Dax articles, here is a Roadmap we ...continue
Germany Dax Update
no responses - Posted 08.19.11
Our target is still around 5200 - it may decide to break the 5000 mark transiently so save up on ammo to long the farm at 4980. Our shorts in Amazon and Chipotle did well last night and buffered our longs in indices - account does not seem to be changing ...continue

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