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Posts Tagged ‘ German Dax ’

Oct 09
Sunday

October 9 2011: Germany Dax Update

Filed under Stocks

Germany Dax Roadmap
Germany Dax Roadmap

In our last post Germany Dax Update on 6 September  we were liquidating our short Dax as it approached 5000 and turned long from 5000:

So where to from here? Our targets remain at the 5000 mark. If history is any guide to our untimely trades, we will be early again. So pepper it light at 5000, and hope to build up aggressively towards 4800.

We are still holding our longs that we anchored from 5200 to 4970 - we had a total of $40/point in total unhedged longs averaging about 5050. We have released some longs in the last week to lighten up from 5400-5700 to derisk in our personal portfolio. Looking at our chart above, this rally is not over yet. We know many are sceptical and are already shorting when the S&P hit 1130 (resistance). Beware. Things always take longer to evolve and unfold. Many are calling for a sharp decline - we agree but timing wise we need one more push up. The RSI has only touched the trendline down (Refer above chart updated today 9 October 2011). We will be longing on pullbacks with a target of 6000 at least. It may overshoot to 6200-6250 before the ultimate decline, but we are happy to get out by 6000. News wise, Greek default will most likely be the trigger for the next decline (Note we have ALOT of Amazon shorts so we are happy to have some core long indices to hedge our Amazon).

Trade Plan for the next 2 months:

  1. Long on pull back - if Dax pulls back to 5480-5500 we look to re-establish some long positions
  2. Take profits as Dax approaches 6000 - be all out by 6000
  3. Do nothing from 6000 to 6190
  4. Short from 6210 to 6300
  5. Ride it down and take profits from 5000 to 4600.
  6. Long From 4550-4480. (we think it will break the 4500 mark)

All entries filed under this archive


Long Dax
no responses - Posted 09.12.11
We went long Dax overnight at 5000 $10/point. Our next order to open is at 4810 $20/point. continue
Germany Dax Update
no responses - Posted 09.05.11
OCTOBER 2008 We see similarities now with October 2008 - after the sharp drop in October 2008 - from 6250 to low of about 4250, 32% (3 red candles), there was a brief snap rally to 5400 (small green candle), followed by another red candle to the 4000 mark. This bottom ...continue
India NIFTY Trade Update
no responses - Posted 02.04.11
We have $75/point short NIFTY entry point 5375 left. Our long hedges in Nikkei and DJ were closed for $29k profits. We closed $65/point today at our entry at 5375 to lighten up our naked short position. So our long Nikkei/DJ + short NIFTY NET profit is now 29k, with ...continue
Germany Dax Roadmap
1 response - Posted 12.02.10
All our proprietary indicators are at an extreme. One by one they trigger a warning, some beyond 2007 overbought levels. Such is the distortion in the markets with government intervention. So beware and have a very long leash on the indicators. We looked at some conventional indicators above - the ...continue
NIKKEI and NIFTY: Protecting Our Profits
no responses - Posted 10.12.09
We have closed $1/point (out of $5/point) of our long NIKKEI from 9580 at 10098, booking a profit of 518 points x 1 = $518. Judging by our track record of picking turning points (ie not very good), we will only unload 1/5.  We will unload another $1/point at every 50 point intervals.  Stops for ...continue
Short DAX
no responses - Posted 10.06.09
$5/point 5650 stop at 5740. Addition: The DAX closed strong and did not do an intraday reversal. At the time of writing, the DAX futures is trading at 5630. We will lower our stop loss to our entry point 5648 (to include the spread). continue


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