Tuesday

India GDP Data

Post a Comment August 31, 2010 – 12:14 am |   | Permalink |  Print This Post |

Indian GDP numbers will be out today. Economists are generally bullish and in high hopes - which is a good thing for bears. Much prefer great expectations before results are out when in bearish mode. We have seen expectations vary from 8.7% to 9%. India is known (recently in the post election) to have a “black swan rally” ! We were looking back in history to see if Black Swans are usually confined to declines - terrorists attacks, earthquakes, etc - but those who follow the NIFTY will know the force of the bulls in the 13% intraday rally. Imagine riding that!

So, our strategy today is to wait for a knee-jerk rally, then short with stops. These additional positions are trading positions. Brace yourself for a rough ride - we expect (hope) for an initial rally followed by reality setting in…