Monday

Asian Markets Lower

Post a Comment March 30, 2009 – 6:36 am |   | Permalink |  Print This Post |

China is down 5% at the time of writing (8027), and will resume second half trading shortly. All other markets are down. So far, Thursday last week recorded the highest high in this rally - exactly as predicted in our post “Thursday Turn“. Our indicators suggested that was the turning point +/- 1-2 days. The News Factory is starting to churn out bad news - recycling the old news of potential collapse of US Automakers, Bank failures etc. This fall looks like a real pullback - all bear indicators are moving accordingly (Swiss/Yen strengthening, Oil down, Bonds up, EUR/AUD up). However, we will take half our short Australia 200 - closing our 3704 short position now at 3595 (profit 545 AUD). We closed one of our short EUR/AUD minis (entry 2.000) at 1.92 earlier in the day (now 1.93) to book 800 AUD in profits. We call this risk management. All the technical analysts are calling for an up day today - which is still possible (markets seldom move in one direction from pre-open to close). Our 8000 mark is still not fulfilled (very close though, which suggests to us that it is likely 8000 will give way). Hence we closed one of our short Aussie position to book 109 points. We will reshort if markets decide to do a 180 turn and head higher tonight. At this point it does look like the market makers want it to go down. We are happy either way - but prefer markets to go lower as our portfolio is fairly light having unloaded our longs at 7900.

We aim to open a small long position if Dow falls to 7550 (-3%), at the off chance of a complete reversal by close. We will see how Big Brother (China) fairs in the second half.