Sunday

1937 vs Current Bear Market Update

1 Comment February 7, 2010 – 10:45 am |   | Permalink |  Print This Post |

We posted last week that our target was 9880 for our last exit , which would be -30% from the peak. The Dow hit an intraday low of 9843 (breaking round number 9850), then fired back up to 10012. Our only “mistake” (hindsight is a wonderful thing) was setting a stop at 10200, giving the manipulators a chance to take us out the day before. Don’t you hate it when this happens!? That’s one of the reasons why we started this site, so that we would be forced to make a call by posting our trades live. Talk is alot easier, especially in trading. In all the newsletters we have read, these experts take credit for every call (simply by making lots of (opposite) calls). We were confident that 10,000 will be breached. We shorted more in our personal portfolio at 10250, and more of UK transport. Friday before the close we opened some long silver to hedge our unhedged shorts in the Dow. The thing is markets close at 10012, not 9880. Usually the market needs to close at the target (since all the numbers we use to calculate our prediction was derived from closing price). We will stay out for now.

What concerns us is what we read in the headlines #1 “It’s time to jump in” (???). We are also beginning to get phone calls from friends who have never been interested in stocks asking if we think its time to “go all in” equities? This is exactly what the men in black wants. Moms and dads are usually the last to jump in, and foots the bill for the party.

Our strategy going forward: We look to reshort at ~ 10400 +/- 50 points. Lets hope for a swift rally. Stops at previous high 10720.

Bullish Headlines

1937 vs 2007 Crash Comparison Update 7.2.2010

1937 vs 2007 Crash update