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The Inflationist Challenge 2009 - Category Archive

Stock Trading Challenge Helps You Help Us Make Money Trading Stocks, Bonds, Commodities

Aug 14

Market Update

Filed under Stocks, Technical Analysis, The Inflationist Challenge 2009

2011 Crash Update
2011 Crash Update

The recent crash has brought most of our trades in the black. We gradually reeled in our profits as the Dax went to 5740 with sequential closing of shorts without closing our longs (yes we broke our rule). Actually gradually went long Dax at 5900 to 5780 but have since taken profits at 6000. Question is will markets head higher from here? Looking at all our favourite technical blogs on the InvestorIdol network we see a mixed picture. Our plan is to remain hedged as this point after making such a windfall profit. Our trading account which was opened on 13 September 2009 is almost 2 years old, and is currently at 245%. Whenever we find our net fund value at record high, call it paranoia if you like, we get very nervous the next move or trade is going to take us back to the mean of average traders (ie our performance have been pure luck misinterpreted as talent). We hope to rehedge some of our shorts or at least close some of our naked longs (at a loss) at a slightly higher level. Looking at the chart above, the last 2 times the market took a huge dive (red arrows), it rebounded strongly, but then drifted down again to create new lows. The eventual rally will surpass current levels, but we dont want to soil our pants in the ride down with naked longs. At the moment, our portfolio has quite a few unhedged long indices (mainly ASX and agriculture), and almost an equivalent amount of short Amazon (PE>80), Chipotle (Mexican food chain trading at PE > 30), India NIFTY index, and Baidu. We must thank Tim Knight from the Slope of Hope for a chart he posted on Fossil which alerted us to it. We had a significant amount of shorts in Fossil at $130, and closed out at $100 (it bottomed at about $77! can never pick the top or bottom).

I dont think markets will hit the peak again, but in rehedging with shorts I will prepare for that possible scenario. Will start peppering shorts at Dax ~6200 (our shorts could be in the form of short tech stocks). If markets decide to go south first, we look to go long when the Dax is at 5180 (target low).

We also look to accumulate more shares in PPP, currently trading below cash backing. PPP is a penny oil stock that is debt free, has 1 million barrels of 2P reserves in production (95% of penny oil hopefuls dont have any production), and are currently drilling in Vietnam.

I apologize for not posting in the last few months , we have been busy with our day job.

All entries filed under The Inflationist Challenge 2009

Short RUT and Amazon
no responses - Posted 04.01.11
Short Amazon $180 - 100 shares Short Russell (RUT) 845 - $100/point continue
Protected: Market Update
no responses - Posted 07.08.10
This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below: Password: continue
Which Path Are We Taking: Japan, Zimbabwe or Argentina?
no responses - Posted 06.08.10
So which path will we take? Japan: - slow and painful deflation. Policy: bail everything out. Zimbabwe: - hyperinflation. Policy: print print print! Argentina: - acute deflation then inflation. Policy: default. At this point in time, we are ruling Zimbabwe out. I dont think policy makers are that blind to follow that path. We ...continue
Floating Alternative to Nabucco Pipeline Moving Toward Implementation
no responses - Posted 04.16.10
Romania, Azerbaijan, and Georgia on April 13, 2010, took a major step toward the implementation of a substitute energy distribution network to substitute for the US-backed Nabucco strategic gas pipeline complex. Azerbaijan Minister of Industry and Energy Natik Aliyev, Romanian Minister of Economy, Commerce and Business Environment Adriean Videanu, and Georgian ...continue
TheInflationist Weekend Summary: 201209
no responses - Posted 12.20.09
Our last weekend summary was a month ago - since then markets have gone up about 5%. It is humiliating reading through previous posts shorting so eagerly at every alternate post - we fired shorts when Dow was at 9980, 10200, and finally 10520+10540 (hooray!). Our topside heavy approach and ...continue
The Speculator David Haselhurst Portfolio Updated 12 December 2009
no responses - Posted 12.12.09
New stocks added to portfolio since last update: ERM: Emmerson Resources GGP: Golden Gate Petroleum EMU: Emu Nickel HEG: Hill End Gold COY: Coppermoly DRX: Diatreme Resources To view The Speculator's updated and complete portfolio, click here. Who is The Speculator David Haselhurst? continue

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