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Technical Analysis - Category Archive

Aug 14

Market Update

Filed under Stocks, Technical Analysis, The Inflationist Challenge 2009

2011 Crash Update
2011 Crash Update

The recent crash has brought most of our trades in the black. We gradually reeled in our profits as the Dax went to 5740 with sequential closing of shorts without closing our longs (yes we broke our rule). Actually gradually went long Dax at 5900 to 5780 but have since taken profits at 6000. Question is will markets head higher from here? Looking at all our favourite technical blogs on the InvestorIdol network we see a mixed picture. Our plan is to remain hedged as this point after making such a windfall profit. Our trading account which was opened on 13 September 2009 is almost 2 years old, and is currently at 245%. Whenever we find our net fund value at record high, call it paranoia if you like, we get very nervous the next move or trade is going to take us back to the mean of average traders (ie our performance have been pure luck misinterpreted as talent). We hope to rehedge some of our shorts or at least close some of our naked longs (at a loss) at a slightly higher level. Looking at the chart above, the last 2 times the market took a huge dive (red arrows), it rebounded strongly, but then drifted down again to create new lows. The eventual rally will surpass current levels, but we dont want to soil our pants in the ride down with naked longs. At the moment, our portfolio has quite a few unhedged long indices (mainly ASX and agriculture), and almost an equivalent amount of short Amazon (PE>80), Chipotle (Mexican food chain trading at PE > 30), India NIFTY index, and Baidu. We must thank Tim Knight from the Slope of Hope for a chart he posted on Fossil which alerted us to it. We had a significant amount of shorts in Fossil at $130, and closed out at $100 (it bottomed at about $77! can never pick the top or bottom).

I dont think markets will hit the peak again, but in rehedging with shorts I will prepare for that possible scenario. Will start peppering shorts at Dax ~6200 (our shorts could be in the form of short tech stocks). If markets decide to go south first, we look to go long when the Dax is at 5180 (target low).

We also look to accumulate more shares in PPP, currently trading below cash backing. PPP is a penny oil stock that is debt free, has 1 million barrels of 2P reserves in production (95% of penny oil hopefuls dont have any production), and are currently drilling in Vietnam.

I apologize for not posting in the last few months , we have been busy with our day job.

All entries filed under Technical Analysis

no responses - Posted 11.20.10
Indicator 1 (BLUE) : 10 year extreme (Stock market in RED) Indicator 2: Extreme Our indicators are NOT for short term trading, but measures degree of how overbought markets are. Indicator 1 has gone to unprecedented levels in the last 10 years! Higher than 2007 high. We live in unprecedented times. Meanwhile, ...continue
Yes, You Can Time the Market - Use These Trend Indicators
no responses - Posted 08.20.10
By: Lorimer Wilson The trend is your friend and this article reviews the 7 most popular trend indicators to help you make an extensive and in-depth assessment of whether you should be buying or selling. If ever there was a “cut and save” investment advisory this article is it.  Words: 1370 It ...continue
Amazon (AMZN) Complete Analysis
3 responses - Posted 08.08.10
We just read Amazon's 2009 Annual Report, and extracted some important notes for your easy reference. Amazon Number of shares outstanding = 442 m Share price at time of analysis = $128 Market capitalisation = 56.57 B Historical Price Chart of Amazon (AMZN) Amazon Financial Analysis Amazon Historical Valuation Ratios Institutional Holding in Amazon % Shares Owned by ...continue
Protected: Market Update
no responses - Posted 07.08.10
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Which Path Are We Taking: Japan, Zimbabwe or Argentina?
no responses - Posted 06.08.10
So which path will we take? Japan: - slow and painful deflation. Policy: bail everything out. Zimbabwe: - hyperinflation. Policy: print print print! Argentina: - acute deflation then inflation. Policy: default. At this point in time, we are ruling Zimbabwe out. I dont think policy makers are that blind to follow that path. We ...continue
1937 vs 2007 Crash Update | Market Prediction
no responses - Posted 02.21.10
Our last update on 1937 vs 2007 comparison was exactly two weeks ago, 7 Feb 2010 - when markets were in the pits. Dow was 9880 at the time of writing then - and our plan 2 weeks ago was: Our strategy going forward: We look to reshort at ~ ...continue

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