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Amazon - Category Archive

Dec 27

Commodities Double Dip Depression 1933 and 1938

Filed under Agriculture, Amazon, Commodities

We continue to accumulate Australian listed companies trading below cash/liquid assets - balanced by our shorts in Amazon and Chipotle. In an indirect (admittedly alot RISKIER) way, this is what Jim Rogers is doing: Long Commodities, Short US Tech. We are buying resource companies trading at significant discount to cash, and recently even picked up a holding micro cap company trading significantly below its holdings in listed producing gold companies with single digit PEs. Again, compounding discounts. As volume is negligible, we have not stocked up yet. We will add it to our portfolio once we have our first tranche of purchase. We WILL NOT be going all in, as we expect precious metals to drop - this will no doubt create further pressure on the company share price. We are hoping for an in-specie distribution, which we think is likely as the CEO is also topping up on his holdings. We have bought our initial parcel of shares at a 25% discount to his lowest purchase in his own company - and we hope to continue to out purchase him at lower levels.

Whilst we are bullish on precious metals long term, we are concern and have made provisions for a 30% pull back in gold and silver after a consecutive 10-11 year rally. Silver prices sub $20 (not a prediction) will be our buy signal. We did long silver post GFC at $14 and got off the bus way too early after a “vertical” ascent to $18-19 - feeling like a genius, this feeling did not last for long. Looking at charts of commodities in the Great Depression, we see a double dip in prices of commodities. First crash in 1932-33, prices recovered with quantitative easing (yes they did the same thing back then) in 1937 to peak in 1938, followed by another sharp decline. After this second dip, prices shot up to make higher highs.

We have no monopoly over the future, but when the next crises comes (Euro crisis and default, Japan crisis), commodities may double dip again. Year to date, the ASX is down about 15% - no surprise there as China remains one of the weakest markets for the year - whilst US markets are neutral/slightly up for the year.

Double Dip in Commodities in Great Depression
Double Dip in Commodities in Great Depression

Double Dip in Commodities in Great Depression


Rogers Agriculture Index ELEMENTS Chart
Rogers Agriculture Index ELEMENTS Chart


1. Continue to accumulate soft commodity position - we are buying RJA in small bites. Buy order at $9, $8, $7 and $6 in increasing quantity (pyramidal increments)

2. Continue to buy cash backed resource companies with decent (tight arsed) management and tight capital structure

3. Short overvalued stocks

All entries filed under Amazon

Chipotle vs Amazon vs Apple vs Google Chart Comparison and Analysis
no responses - Posted 12.22.11
Points: 1. Investing in Google (Brown line) over the last 5 years have been a (relatively) very bad investment 2. Gap between Apple and Amazon finally converge. We are still riding our 350 shares in Amazon short from $239. Plan to close another 200 shares at $160 +/- $10. We may not ...continue
Painful: Amazon
no responses - Posted 10.15.11
Conclusion: 1. RSI downtrend line (red line) has no predictive value in picking the top (1999: rallied 9% to peak; 2003: rallied 110% to peak ; 2007: rallied 63% to peak; 2011: 56% currently) 2. BEWARE: Easy to overfit when drawing the RSI downtrend line. I tried blinding myself to the actual ...continue
Amazon versus Apple versus Google
1 response - Posted 09.21.11
Amazon hit all time high two nights ago at $242, with a current PE of 109. If you go to Yahoos Market Pulse which tracks the live chat on Amazon by traders (tweets etc), you will find everyone is bullish on Amazon's soon to be launched "Ipad Killer". We are ...continue
Amazon | Baidu | Chipotle | Fossil | Google | Caterpillar - 2 Year Chart Comparison
no responses - Posted 08.14.11
[caption id="attachment_4768" align="aligncenter" width="672" caption="Click to ENLARGE"][/caption] Disclosure: We are Short: Amazon, Baidu, Chipotle, (took profits in Fossil) Long: Google(paired with Amazon short), Caterpillar (Paired with Chipotle) ------ We believe food prices will continue to go up (good for Caterpillar, bad for restaurant chains as margins get squeezed). Google remains the #1 search engine online, Amazon ...continue
Amazon Short
no responses - Posted 10.21.10
Amazon: Order to short $170 - 200 shares. Short $165 - 50 shares. continue
Amazon (AMZN) Complete Analysis
3 responses - Posted 08.08.10
We just read Amazon's 2009 Annual Report, and extracted some important notes for your easy reference. Amazon Number of shares outstanding = 442 m Share price at time of analysis = $128 Market capitalisation = 56.57 B Historical Price Chart of Amazon (AMZN) Amazon Financial Analysis Amazon Historical Valuation Ratios Institutional Holding in Amazon % Shares Owned by ...continue

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