Jan 11
Sunday
Commodities - The Big Picture
The Big Picture
great-depression-rebuttal-image003
Historical Commodity Chart
Whilst we are bullish on commodities long term, we believe prices will remain depressed for at least 12 months, if not a few years. Those expecting a a quick rebound will be disappointed. There is a fundamental paradox that the commodity market will have to go through - and that is a phase of sustained low prices. It needs to be long enough to wipe out most explorers and more importantly uneconomical producers. This will ultimately improve the supply demand of commodities and be a setup for the next commodity boom. During the Great Depression, commodities fell along with everything else during the initial crash in 1929, went lower for about 2-3 years to early 1930s, and subsequently decoupled from the market as (depressed) demand outstripped supply.
The worst is certainly not over, expect more casualties before we see a turn. It is early days. For now, TheInflationist hopes to take advantage of a rebound by buying cashed up producers or explorers trading significantly below cash (with net cash > $50 mil and a low cash burn).
| No. Shares | Company | Bought | Cost | Now | Profit/Loss |
| 10000 | WBA.AX | 1-23-2009 | $0.67 | $0.53 | $-1,400.00 |
| 2000 | CIR.AX | 6-27-2009 | $0.74 | $0.43 | $-620.00 |
| 15000 | COE.AX | 7-13-2009 | $0.30 | $0.44 | $2,055.00 |
| 20000 | COE.AX | 8-27-2009 | $0.43 | $0.44 | $200.00 |
| 5000 | AAC.AX | 10-9-2009 | $1.45 | $1.24 | $-1,050.00 |
| 5000 | BPT.AX | 11-14-2009 | $0.81 | $1.12 | $1,550.00 |
| 5000 | MAK.AX | 12-8-2009 | $0.39 | $0.19 | $-1,000.00 |
| 3000 | ELD.AX | 1-6-2010 | $1.69 | $0.21 | $-4,440.00 |
| 5000 | CIR.AX | 2-18-2010 | $0.59 | $0.43 | $-800.00 |
| 20000 | PPP.AX | 3-7-2010 | $0.24 | $0.14 | $-1,900.00 |
| 10000 | KZL.AX | 5-4-2010 | $0.61 | $0.12 | $-4,900.00 |
| 10000 | CFE.AX | 5-4-2010 | $0.38 | $0.45 | $700.00 |
| 10000 | RMS.AX | 5-4-2010 | $0.41 | $0.48 | $700.00 |
| 15000 | PPP.AX | 7-28-2010 | $0.17 | $0.14 | $-375.00 |
| 20000 | BSA.AX | 9-8-2010 | $0.22 | $0.22 | $0.00 |
| 1000 | RHL.AX | 10-17-2010 | $2.52 | $3.22 | $700.00 |
| 20000 | PPP.AX | 12-28-2010 | $0.16 | $0.14 | $-400.00 |
| 5000 | MEO.AX | 8-4-2011 | $0.17 | $0.22 | $275.00 |
| 100000 | PPP.AX | 8-13-2011 | $0.13 | $0.14 | $1,500.00 |
| 100 | NFLX | 10-26-2011 | $77.50 | $69.96 | $-754.00 |
| 1000 | PPC.AT | 11-17-2011 | $5.14 | $1.65 | $-3,490.00 |
| 40000 | PSA.AX | 12-20-2011 | $0.12 | $0.13 | $400.00 |
| 3000 | N21.SI | 1-9-2012 | $1.09 | $1.09 | $0.00 |
| 5000 | TBR.AX | 4-2-2012 | $1.27 | $1.01 | $-1,300.00 |
| 30000 | BAU.AX | 4-16-2012 | $0.13 | $0.12 | $-300.00 |
| Cash in Bank | $12,688.00 | ||||
| Portfolio change since 1.1.2009 | 191.16% | ||||
Transaction History
| Trade | Company Code | Quantity | Price | Date |
| Buy | BAU.AX | 30000 | $0.13 | 4-16-2012 |
| Buy | TBR.AX | 5000 | $1.27 | 4-2-2012 |
| Buy | N21.SI | 3000 | $1.09 | 1-9-2012 |
| Buy | PSA.AX | 40000 | $0.12 | 12-20-2011 |
| Buy | WFC | 100 | $23.39 | 11-23-2011 |
| Buy | JEF | 1000 | $9.98 | 11-23-2011 |
| Buy | PPC.AT | 1000 | $5.14 | 11-17-2011 |
| Buy | NFLX | 100 | $77.50 | 10-26-2011 |
| Buy | COH.AX | 200 | $48.34 | 9-22-2011 |
| Buy | PPP.AX | 100000 | $0.13 | 8-13-2011 |
| Buy | PPP.AX | 100000 | $0.12 | 8-13-2011 |
| Buy | MEO.AX | 5000 | $0.17 | 8-4-2011 |
| Buy | PPP.AX | 20000 | $0.16 | 12-28-2010 |
| Buy | AIB.IR | 5000 | $0.28 | 11-24-2010 |
| Buy | BIR.IR | 10000 | $0.27 | 11-23-2010 |
| Buy | IPM.L | 1500 | $0.85 | 11-22-2010 |
| Buy | BIR.IR | 10000 | $0.37 | 11-12-2010 |
| Buy | RHL.AX | 1000 | $2.52 | 10-17-2010 |
| Buy | BSA.AX | 20000 | $0.22 | 9-8-2010 |
| Buy | PPP.AX | 15000 | $0.17 | 7-28-2010 |
| Buy | SRL.AX | 3000 | $1.19 | 6-6-2010 |
| Buy | SRL.AX | 5000 | $1.20 | 5-5-2010 |
| Buy | MAK.AX | 20000 | $0.28 | 5-4-2010 |
| Buy | RMS.AX | 10000 | $0.41 | 5-4-2010 |
| Buy | CFE.AX | 10000 | $0.38 | 5-4-2010 |
| Buy | KZL.AX | 10000 | $0.61 | 5-4-2010 |
| Buy | CXS.AX | 10000 | $0.39 | 3-22-2010 |
| Buy | PPP.AX | 20000 | $0.24 | 3-7-2010 |
| Buy | CIR.AX | 5000 | $0.59 | 2-18-2010 |
| Buy | CXC.AX | 200 | $17.40 | 1-26-2010 |
| Buy | ELD.AX | 3000 | $1.69 | 1-6-2010 |
| Buy | MAK.AX | 5000 | $0.39 | 12-8-2009 |
| Buy | BPT.AX | 5000 | $0.81 | 11-14-2009 |
| Buy | AAC.AX | 5000 | $1.45 | 10-9-2009 |
| Sell | JBH.AX | 2000 | $18.96 | 9-22-2009 |
| Buy | AJA.AX | 5000 | $0.23 | 9-22-2009 |
| Buy | TLS.AX | 2000 | $3.29 | 9-3-2009 |
| Buy | SHV.AX | 1000 | $3.00 | 9-3-2009 |
| Sell | JBH.AX | 2000 | $18.70 | 9-3-2009 |
| Buy | COE.AX | 20000 | $0.43 | 8-27-2009 |
| Sell | JBH.AX | 1000 | $18.40 | 8-11-2009 |
| Buy | COE.AX | 15000 | $0.30 | 7-13-2009 |
| Buy | SPN.AX | 5000 | $0.74 | 7-13-2009 |
| Buy | CIR.AX | 2000 | $0.74 | 6-27-2009 |
| Buy | TRY.AX | 2000 | $1.35 | 6-27-2009 |
| Buy | VRL.AX | 1000 | $0.80 | 5-13-2009 |
| Buy | COE.AX | 10000 | $0.26 | 5-12-2009 |
| Buy | OZL.AX | 1000 | $0.78 | 5-2-2009 |
| Buy | C | 500 | $2.80 | 4-20-2009 |
| Buy | AUDUSD=X | 10000 | $0.63 | 4-4-2009 |
| Buy | AUDUSD=X | 1 | $1.00 | 4-4-2009 |
| Buy | BJT.AX | 5000 | $0.21 | 3-11-2009 |
| Buy | AED.AX | 2500 | $0.80 | 3-11-2009 |
| Buy | BJT.AX | 5000 | $0.23 | 2-28-2009 |
| Buy | CFE.AX | 20000 | $0.23 | 2-23-2009 |
| Buy | CFE.AX | 20000 | $0.24 | 2-23-2009 |
| Buy | AED.AX | 2500 | $0.85 | 2-18-2009 |
| Buy | AED.AX | 2500 | $0.79 | 2-17-2009 |
| Buy | AED.AX | 2500 | $0.79 | 2-17-2009 |
| Buy | GOOG | 1 | $100.00 | 2-3-2009 |
| Buy | IPR.AX | 50000 | $0.06 | 2-2-2009 |
| Buy | GOOG | 5 | $100.00 | 1-26-2009 |
| Buy | WBA.AX | 10000 | $0.67 | 1-23-2009 |
| Buy | COE.AX | 25000 | $0.26 | 1-23-2009 |
| Buy | COE.AX | 15000 | $0.26 | 1-23-2009 |
| Buy | GIR.AX | 10000 | $0.34 | 1-23-2009 |
| Buy | WBA.AX | 10000 | $0.34 | 1-23-2009 |
| Buy | COE.AX | 10000 | $0.26 | 1-23-2009 |
| Trade | Index | Quantity | Price | Date |
| Buy | ^DJI | 1 | $7,970.00 | 1-23-2009 |
| Buy | ^DJI | 1 | $5.00 | 1-23-2009 |
-
Latest Articles
-
Quick Look
Categories
- Agriculture
- Amazon
- China
- Commodities
- Company Analysis
- Contango
- Discrepancy Trading
- Dow Jones
- Elliott Wave Analysis
- Forex
- Free Stuff
- FTSE
- Gold and Silver
- Great Depression
- Hugh Hendry
- Investor Idol
- Jim Rogers
- Oil and Gas
- Penny Mining Stocks
- Sovereign Default
- Statistical Analysis
- Stock Market Crash
- Stock Market Rally
- Stock Portfolio Widget
- Stocks
- Technical Analysis
- The Inflationist Challenge 2009
- TheInflationist StockPicks
- Treasury Bonds
- Utilities
- Video
- Your StockPicks
Popular
- The Inflationist Challenge 2009 (35)
- Stock Portfolio Management (15)
- Using Fibonacci Numbers in Trading to Predict the Market (12)
- Phosphate Rock, Phosphate Companies - Investing in Agriculture (9)
- Comparison of Bear Markets: 1929 vs 1937 vs 1976 vs 1987 vs 2000 vs Current Bear Market Charts (7)
Latest
-
Reshort Amazon
no responses - Posted 04.28.12
We shorted Amazon last 12 months from $140 to $240 with an average of $200 and covered all $200k worth of Amazon shorts at an average of $175 when it dropped ate last year. We were beginning to worry that we got off prematurely and Amazon would take a sharp dive to our target $35-40 (yes, if it was trading ... continue -
admin Buys BAU.AX
no responses - Posted 04.17.12
admin Buys BAU.AX continue -
Chipotle
no responses - Posted 04.13.12
Check out the hype of a Chipotle Grande Opening: Market Cap : $13.5 bil (compared to McDonalds $99b) Market cap/# stores = $10 million PE: 60 All time high We shorted at about $340 - and looking forward to short more at $500 and $600. Our margin of error is huge - not the way most people trade but we were peppering in our shorts ... continue -
peterpan100 Buys CTIC
no responses - Posted 04.12.12
peterpan100 Buys CTIC continue -
Short US Tech Long ASX
no responses - Posted 04.02.12
continue -
Realised Profits in Jefferies and Wells Fargo - Buying Gold Producer
no responses - Posted 04.02.12
We have taken profits in both JEF and Wells Fargo. continue -
admin Buys TBR.AX
no responses - Posted 04.02.12
admin Buys TBR.AX continue
Tags
- 1937 and 2007 comparison Agriculture Agriculture ETC DJ-AIGCSM agriculture invest Amazon Apple Arbitrage Trading Australian Agriculture Company (AAC) Bank of Ireland China H-Shares Cooper Energy David Haselhurst Discrepancy Trading Do Forex Robot Softwares Work FTSE futures trading General Electric German Dax Germany Dax Gold and Silver Goldman Sachs Google grain invest Great Depression Hugh Hendry India 50 (NIFTY) Inflationist indicator Investing in Agriculture Jim Rogers Magik Numbers Marc Faber Natural Gas Natural Gas ETF NIFTY Technical Analysis Nikkei Nikkei Analysis Rogers International Commodities Index - Agriculture Ron Paul Technical Analysis TheInflationist Challenge The Inflationist Challenge 2009 The Speculator Tony Caldaro Warren Buffett Weekend Summary
Author Archive
Giralia - Cashed Up Iron Explorer
no responses - Posted 01.11.09
TheInflationist bought some GIR last week at 0.34c (market cap: 60mil) with 73 mil in cash reserves, no debt, and 4 mil equity in listed investments. Since then GIR touched a high of 44c (29% above our entry) and closed at 39.5c (market cap 70 mil). TheInflationist got a "please ...continue
no responses - Posted 01.11.09
TheInflationist bought some GIR last week at 0.34c (market cap: 60mil) with 73 mil in cash reserves, no debt, and 4 mil equity in listed investments. Since then GIR touched a high of 44c (29% above our entry) and closed at 39.5c (market cap 70 mil). TheInflationist got a "please ...continue
Markets Failed To Confirm Breakout
no responses - Posted 01.10.09
Every technical blog we follow have cautioned readers of a failed breakout on Friday after the dow broke below support and to sit on the sidelines until we have confirmation of a bullish setup. Bad employment numbers and general market conditions have once again hit headlines as the market behaves ...continue
no responses - Posted 01.10.09
Every technical blog we follow have cautioned readers of a failed breakout on Friday after the dow broke below support and to sit on the sidelines until we have confirmation of a bullish setup. Bad employment numbers and general market conditions have once again hit headlines as the market behaves ...continue
The Inflationist Invests In Walnuts, Carrots, Onions and Salmon
no responses - Posted 01.09.09
A sea of red as ASX tumbles by 2.9% (at date of writing) as The Inflationist sits back and watches the carnage present us with more opportunities. We bought (more than) some Webster Ltd (WBA) - trading close to 52 week lows. Webster have had a great year, with profits ...continue
no responses - Posted 01.09.09
A sea of red as ASX tumbles by 2.9% (at date of writing) as The Inflationist sits back and watches the carnage present us with more opportunities. We bought (more than) some Webster Ltd (WBA) - trading close to 52 week lows. Webster have had a great year, with profits ...continue
Made $1k in 24 Hours
no responses - Posted 01.07.09
Gap narrowed very quickly as FTSE crashed to 4514 whilst Australia 200 stayed strong at 3760. The Inflationist has decided to take profit (even though we think FTSE has got a long way to fall - the gap could easily close up to 700), but $1k for one days "work" ...continue
no responses - Posted 01.07.09
Gap narrowed very quickly as FTSE crashed to 4514 whilst Australia 200 stayed strong at 3760. The Inflationist has decided to take profit (even though we think FTSE has got a long way to fall - the gap could easily close up to 700), but $1k for one days "work" ...continue
Discrepancy Trade: $540 Profit So Far
no responses - Posted 01.07.09
Quick update on our discrepancy trade. Australia 200 is now 3768 and FTSE is at 4575 : Gap of 807. Our opening position was 861. So we are up (861 - 807) x $10 = $540 so far in ONE Day. Thats with a VERY SMALL position of $10/point. You ...continue
no responses - Posted 01.07.09
Quick update on our discrepancy trade. Australia 200 is now 3768 and FTSE is at 4575 : Gap of 807. Our opening position was 861. So we are up (861 - 807) x $10 = $540 so far in ONE Day. Thats with a VERY SMALL position of $10/point. You ...continue
Discrepancy Trading
no responses - Posted 01.06.09
A very profitable and relatively safe way of making money that the The Inflationist subscribes to is in Discrepancy Trading. We take two opposite positions (ie long X and short Y) to take advantage of temporary decoupling between two prices (index, commodity price etc). This style of trading is not ...continue
no responses - Posted 01.06.09
A very profitable and relatively safe way of making money that the The Inflationist subscribes to is in Discrepancy Trading. We take two opposite positions (ie long X and short Y) to take advantage of temporary decoupling between two prices (index, commodity price etc). This style of trading is not ...continue